Third Front seems to be crumbling

By: Subhadeep Bhattacharjee

The formation of the Third Front had made huge amount of political noise. Some analysts believed that this rainbow coalition would change the tide of the election. They promised to form a non-BJP non-Congress government at the centre which sounded almost unbelievable in reality. But with the uncertain wave that is blowing in this election, political pundits did not have the courage to write them off.

The impact was so much that when Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh and Ram Vilas Paswan did not find space in the Third Front they formed their own Fourth Front although still pledging support to the Congress led UPA. But for many the Third Front was a dooms day combination from day one as it had the castist, leftist, regionalist and opportunist in the same side. If that was not all almost every party had its own Prime Ministerial candidate.

Now as the Electronic Voting Machines buzz for the last time to elect the representatives to the 15th Lok Sabha the rainbow coalition seems to be crumbling. First it was the TRS chief K C Rao who attended NDA's grand rally in Ludhiana and now HD Kumaraswamy of the JS(S) met Sonia Gandhi secretly attempting to hide his face from the media persons while entering the 10th Janpath.

If there was one thing that the Congress and the BJP agreed on in the campaign process it was that a government at the Centre has to be led by either of them. They always believed that they could attract the fringe elements from the Third Front by giving them ministerial berths once it comes to the formation of the government. The NDA was better placed that the UPA as unlike the later it did not have alliance with people who have their state rivals in the Third Front.

The Third Front from the start had planned to cash in on the Left and Mayawati. Left is most likely to loose seats in its bastion West Bengal and Kerela while Mayawati is not expected to surprise in UP. Alliance partners like the TDP, the AIADMK will not have much ideological difference in siding with the NDA in a post poll scenario. The JD(S) is in back door negotiations with the Congress while Left has made it clear that Congress is not untouchable. This might leave Mayawati alone in the Third Front but again BJP always has a door open for her in spite of the multiple divorces they have had in the past.

What seems most likely is that post May 16 there will be intense activity going on in 11 Ashoka Road and 24 Akbar Road. The so called Third Front leaders will be busy with their arithmetic. It will not be very surprising to see many of the allies in what is today the Third Front sitting in different sides of the house in the coming 15th Lok Sabha.