Is Nepal heading towards another armed struggle?

A lot has happened in Nepal in the last 48 hours starting with the dismissal of the Army Chief Rukmangad Katawal by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda'. Then President Ram Baran Yadav stepped in and countermanded the ruling of the Maoists leader and reinstated Gen Katawal as the chief of the Army. Prachanda submitted his resignation in protest throwing the Himalayan nation into uncertainty.

The bone of contention between the Prachanda and Katawal is over the recruitment of Maoist guerrilla in the Nepalese Army. Gen Katawal is strictly against the recruitment of indoctrinated fighters into the Army. His argument is that army as an institution doesn't ally with any political faction and thus these 19000 guerrillas are not fit for the army. Also the fact that Katawal and Prachanda fought a war against each other for 10 years makes it impossible for the two men to have a working relationship.

According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement which was signed when the People Liberation Army (Maoist Guerrillas) entered the mainstream these rebel soldiers were to be recruited into the Army. But Gen Katawal has stood against it and even extended the service for eight senior generals who support him on the issue. There were rumours that he was even planning a coup in Nepal with the support of his Army.

From India's perspective Nepal is becoming another serious security threat in the neighbourhood after Pakistab, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Prachanda's openly blaming India for the present political crisis streamlines the current trust the PM in Nepal has over India. The Indian government had helped (both financially and militarily) the King and the then Royal Nepalese Army fighting against Prachanda and his men during the 10 year civil war.

Prachanda's close ties with the Communist leaders in China is another worrying factor for India. Prachanda and his man have always supported their Maoist counterparts in India. Nepal being its protectorate New Delhi had always maintained cordial relationship with Kathmandu especially during the Shah dynasty's reign. After the Maoist takeover the relationship between the two countries haven't been the same. Both the sides not trusting each other is not helping the cause either.

The coming days will be very crucial for the political stability in Nepal. The vast political divide between the political parties and the Army seems to be the perfect ingredient uncertainty in the nation. In a worst case scenario an armed struggle between the Army and the Maoists cannot be ruled out.

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Are we heading towards another bull run?

By: Subhadeep Bhattacharjee

For a share investor in the Indian market the last one month has been encouraging. After months and months of losses which saw crores go down the drain the markets seems to be finally looking north. Many investors who had burnt their fingers with declining stock prices all throughout 2008 are again ready to put their money in the market but with some caution off course.

In the first month of the current financial year 2009-10 the BSE index has gained close to 17.5% and is up from 9708 in March end to 11403 at the end of April. The NSE's Nifty wasn't too far behind gaining 454 points in April to close it 3474 registering a growth of more than 15% from 3020 where it closed on the 31st of March. Now this growth will surely bring back some confidence among the investors towards the market.

The first one hour of trading in April the BSE index shot up by more than 500 points. This is a great sign considering in the backdrop there is a huge political uncertainty looming over the nation. Although the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has predicted the global slowdown to last a little longer Indian markets have shown positive signs in the last two months. A seasoned economist will tell you stock market and economy don't always correlate.

Now is the big question is, whether this is the start of another bull run in Indian? Crossing the 12000 mark in the first trading day of April has come as a huge psychological factor. The 15% growth in one month might well be a price correction but under no circumstance is this a 'bear market' figure. Touching the magical 21000 mark might be a distant dreams but a 5-7% growth is on the cards for the next few moths. The markets are bound to stabilise in the coming months between 13000-15000 mark provided the a unthinkable political coalition doesn't take command of the country.

Many analysts feel that the worst may be over for the Indian markets although the recession is not nearing its end soon. One of the reasons for the Indian markets doing well is because of the foreign investment. For a global investor India is still one of the safest bets. GDP under all circumstance will grow by over 6% this year which might sound a distant dream for many other countries in the ongoing recession.

The month of May and June will be very crucial for the Indian markets. Since the results of the general elections and the government formation will take place during this time we might see lots of crest and troughs. If the stock market can sustain a growth rate of 6-8% in these two months the Indian markets may be all set for another bull run and raise market to great peaks in no time. The bull run after all doesn't leave people with too much time to think!!

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Is the worst over for Indian markets?

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